The Future of Currency

Money, currency and other forms of financial transactions are on the verge of a dramatic transformation that will forever reshape the way we conduct business and trade both locally and globally. The Covid-19 pandemic not only accelerated the shift toward digital and contactless payments, but also led to a more mainstream acceptance of physical cash alternatives like cryptocurrency and that will only become more commonplace moving forward.

The End of Cash

Prasad, a senior professor of trade policy at Cornell University, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and the former head of the International Monetary Fund’s China division, says that “the era of cash is drawing to an end and that of central bank digital currencies has already begun.” This is one of the few things I agree with him on.

Though there are an infinite number of ways future currency can evolve but I predict a balanced combination of cryptocurrency, stablecoins, central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and other intergrated non-contact digital payment systems will lead to the complete demise of physical cash in our lifetimes.

In 2010 99.5% of small businesses accepted cash as a payment option, in 2015 that number dropped to 97%, by 2020 it was 90% and by December of 2021 only 70% of small businesses in the US accepted cash as a payment option. In a recent poll conducted by Travis Financial (Credit Unions) they discovered that only 16% of US consumers always carry cash, and additional 9% carry it sometimes and an additional 12% carry it only when needed furthermore a whopping 63% of US consumers no longer carry cash at all.

The truth is the age of cash as a currency has already ended and by way of the pandemic we have already passed the point of no return in our journey toward a completely cashless society.

In the very near future ALL transaction no matter how insignificant will take place using a digital means of transacting all seamlessly connected through the data stream. While true money (gold & silver) will never be completely replaced physical fiat currencies will only exist in museums and numismatic collections.

As inflation continues to rise and the currencies of the world (specifically the US dollar) continues to devalue it will become easier and easier to convince the population the only solution is to replace physical currency with virtual currency. Already most central banks either have or are developing blockchain currencies of their own. There is little doubt that all central banks will have functioning digital currencies by the end of 2022 and many are already using them in limited capacities. It is now an inevitable reality that cash as we know it will be eliminated in the reasonably near future and the most likely scenario will include the drastic devaluation of the US dollar coupled with the rise of blockchain acceptance by central banks and financial institutions.

I still do not see a clear path to any kind of unified global currency for many complicated reasons including politics, psychology and the illusion of freedom and choice. I believe we will have hundreds, possibly even thousands of ways to exchange, send and receive payments and transfer value. The one common thread is they will all be digital and ultimately processed through the data stream. All transaction will be easily tracked, publicly transparent, reported and taxed (likely in real time).

To be clear I don’t think the United States will abruptly end paper money rather they will introduce a digital version of the dollar and slowly transition away from cash.

The Future of Stocks

The rise of NFT’s, Blockchain technology, Digital currencies and electronic transactions will cause the abolition of the stock market as we know it. For better or worse no longer will one entity control the business markets of an entire country nor will the trading market be restricted to specific operating hours or global regions.

Sure companies will still have stocks and you will be able to invest your digital currencies in those stocks and earn returns or take losses. The primary difference is all stocks globally will be decentralized and converted to blockchain “Currencies” exchangeable by anyone at anytime regardless of location. The “stock market” will operate much the same way digital currency exchanges operate now with each company having their own digital currency. It is likely hundreds or even thousands of exchanges will exist and any given company can have their “Stock” listed of any number of them simultaneously.

One advantage to the new model is most companies will likely accept their “stock” as a payment method or currency to purchase services and goods. Some companies may even accept stock of another company as payment for their own goods or services.

Taxes

As the future of currency changes to an ALL-digital model I suspect the model of taxation will also change. I expect to see all levied taxes imposed as a percentage fee applied to each digital transaction and collected by the governing body at the time of transaction.

Taxes will be levied much the way sales taxes are imposed toady but will likely be a higher percentage and all transactions regardless of purpose will be subject to such fees payable at the time of transaction.

UPDATE 02/08/2022

Forbes announced today that the Federal Reserve has developed and tested a “Digital” version of the US dollar that can handle 1.7 Million transactions per second with most transactions closed in <1 Second.

Fed Designs Digital Dollar That Handles 1.7 Million Transactions Per Second (forbes.com)

NFT’s, Digital Art & Digital Media

NFT’s

Non-fungible tokens, or NFTs, are the latest technological advancement in “cryptocurrency” to go mainstream. Recently Christie’s auction house sold the first-ever NFT artwork (a collection of images by digital artist Beeple) for a whopping $69.3 million NFT’s have attracted the world’s attention. What exactly is an NFT? In the simplest terms, NFTs transform digital (non tangible) works of art and other collectibles into one-of-a-kind, verifiable assets that can be traded on the blockchain.

Any “Digitizable” item can become a permanent NFT. For example the first tweet Jack Dorsey ever sent is now an NFT (Worth 2+ Million Dollars) Unlike other forms of data stored on Blockchain, NFT’s are non-interchangeable. This means they are not reproducible. The most common iterations of these assets are things like digital media, such as photos, videos, and even audio. An owner of an NFT possesses a digital ledger granted to provide a public certificate of authenticity for that specific item.

NFTs are de-centralized and provide ownership of a particular item to the certificate holder.  It is this function that will lead to the complete replacement of many business transactions that typically require a middleman. Things like deeds, titles, records, movies, medical documents, vaccine records, event tickets and more will move to digital ownership. And because they are decentralized on Blockchain this will theoretically provide the owner a more secure method of ownership in addition to simplified transactions.

In the near future we will see traditionally hard (Paper) documents replaced by NFT’s. Things such as diplomas, domain names, patents, trademarks, bonds, insurance policies, hunting licenses, permits, passports, drivers licenses & visas will be replaced with easily verifiable NFT tokens. Also no intermediaries are required to verify these tokens, a government official, potential employer or educator could verify your “credentials” on the spot for free.

Digital Art

Much like other forms of physical documents traditional printed, painted and drawn art will almost completely cease to exist only to be replaced by NFT’s. In 2020 nearly 90% of all new art created was digital. In addition we will see the rise of both Virtual Reality and Augmented Reality art (more on this in Part 4) creating immersive journeys where the viewer can experience the artwork utilizing a headset, glasses or implants.

I fully expect priceless works of physical art the likes of Van Gough and Picaso to be digitized into an NFT and then destroyed. Artwork of the future will be displayed in smart frames or smart walls using IOT technology (More on that in part 14) and connected to the stream. Your art collection will be ALL digital and accessible from anywhere giving you the ability to display it whenever and wherever you wish.

The pandemic has all but destroyed most museums and many art galleries, many will likely not recover and the ones that do are not likely to have a bright future.

Digital Media

In 2013 I wrote “As our society moves closer to the virtual/digital and further from the human interaction of the physical world we will see a significant decrease in communal experience centers such as museums, movie theaters, concerts, event halls, churches and seminars.” In the near future anything where the experience or content can be delivered digitally will eventually be all but eliminated by NFT’s and digital media.

Indeed we are already nearing the end of things like DVD movies, Video Game Disk’s and Blu-Rays. Everything is readily available for streaming or download in an instant. While this certainly has many advantages such as no more lost or scratched disks, always having the latest version of your favorite game or the latest episode of your favorite show there are many hidden cons to not having a physical “Disk”. Recently I have discovered numerous older movies and shown that are simply not available for digital acquisition or streaming because of political correctness. Even more frequently I have found some of my favorite classics to be modified, dubbed or missing content that is no longer considered socially acceptable. This behavior make me question the motives of those pushing for the elimination of physical media.

Books

What does the future hold for paper writings, book, pamphlets, guides and so on? While I don’t think books will ever be truly eliminated (Partly because people like me) in the near future traditional print media will be replaced with a combination of E-books, NFT’s and audio books with features unlike anything currently imaginable.

Future “books” will be bundled with soundtracks, musical leitmotifs, 3-D graphics, augmented reality and streaming video. They’ll be enhanced with social bookmarking, online dating, and alerts from geo-networking apps whenever someone in your locality purchases the same book as you, literally anything so you don’t have to actually read the “book”.

Like other forms of media mentioned earlier the books deemed not socially acceptable or otherwise disruptive my not be available at all, still others may be gradually edited and changed to become more “Acceptable”. I have already seen several instances where new copies classic books have been edited for content thereby changing the authors intent and this trend is likely to get worse as time progresses.

Entire libraries will be stored on a single device or perhaps “in the cloud” accessible from anywhere and will remain in a constant state of evolution. Imagine all of your books and media constantly being “Updated” and revised in real time subject to the whims and political persuasions of the authors and distributors.

Speaking for myself I have begun the arduous process of collecting classic films and literature of importance for the sake of originality and the preservation of history for my progeny.

Update 02/10/2022

The first real property has sold with the deed issued as an NFT

Gulfport home first in nation sold as NFT; buyer pays $655K (baynews9.com)