Below are just some of the major things affecting the US ammunition market in addition to substantially increased civilian demand (mostly due to lack of trust in our government). I have been an ammunition dealer and Federal Firearms dealer for many years. Based on what I am seeing on the manufacturing and wholesale supply side of this market (we still haven’t fully recovered from the “Covid” shortage) I do not expect the current shortage to relent for at least 12-18 Months at minimum and likely will not return to “normal” (whatever that is) for 3-4 Years.
CZ’s Buying Spree
CZ International (Česká zbrojovka) a company based in Czechoslovakia. Has been on a multi-billion dollar shopping spree for several years buying up many other firearms, ammo and sporting goods companies including the list below.
Colt, CZ, Colt-Canada, Colt-USA, CZ-USA, Dan Wesson, Federal, CCI, Remington Ammo, Speer, Hevi-Shot, Fiocchi, B&P, Sellier & Bellot, Magtech, Bell, Bushnell, Blackhawk, Butler Creek, Champion, Gunmate, Hoppe’s 9, Outer’s, Primos, RCBS, Redfield, Simmon’s, Tasco, Weaver, Gunmate, Swiss AA (Ammunition & Arms), Spuhr, 4M Tactical, BRNO Rifles, Defense Solutions, EG Academy, VIBROM, CARDAM and others
Serbia Halts Arms Exports PPU
Serbia halts arms exports after US sanctioned the country’s spy chief for alleged illegal arms trade. Serbia’s government has decided to ban arms export until further notice just days after the United States imposed sanctions on the Balkan country’s intelligence chief over alleged involvement in criminal activities including illegal arms shipments.
Defense Minister Miloš Vučević said that the export ban is necessary in order to fulfill the needs of the Serbian army and boost its combat readiness amid the simmering crisis in the Balkan region.
“It does not mean Serbia is going to war or calling for war, but we are looking at all security risks and challenges,” Vučević said.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić first announced the move in June and cited “internal security” in Serbia as the reason for the ban while tensions simmer with neighboring Kosovo, a former Serbian province whose 2008 declaration of independence Belgrade doesn’t recognize.
Vučević said the decision will be reviewed every 30 days.
Serbia is the home to PPU Ammunition.
Russian Ammunition Import Ban
All Russian ammo was banned for import to the U.S. as of Sept. 7, 2021, but that did not immediately stop the flow because of a State Department exception allowing existing and pending import permits to stand until renewal, while no new import permits were issued current permits could be completed.
President Biden placed sanctions on Russia that have eliminated all imports of Russian Ammunition the last legal container under pre-existing permits landed September 2023. At this point ALL Russian made ammo is permanently illegal to import and/or possess in the United States, this includes importing from a third-party company or country.
As of 2021 Imported Russian ammunition accounted for roughly 30% of the total ammunition sold in the United States
Lake City Halts All Commercial Contracts
The Lake City Army Ammunition Plant is the single largest producer of rifle ammunition for the U.S. military and is operated by Winchester-Olin. Winchester holds the contract to run the plant and is thereby granted permission to sell some of the ammo that is produced there – this includes 5.56x45mm M193 and M855, the most popular rifle cartridges in America as well as 40 other popular rounds. Last month, we were informed that demand from the military has overridden all existing commercial orders, and that Lake City has suspended all production for the civilian market until further notice. Given the size of current government order it is likely the this will last for 12-18 months assuming no further escalation of violence abroad. This move has already tightened supply and demand has soared for many popular calibers including, but not limited to: 5.56x45mm NATO, .223 Rem, 9mm, 7.62x39mm, .308 Win & .338 Lapua.
Lake city accounts for 30% of all .223/5.56mm ammunition manufactured in the united states and 20% of the total US ammunition manufactured.
Hornady Plant Explosion
On Friday morning (10/13), Hornady experienced a fatal explosion at one of its manufacturing plants in Wood River, NE. Sadly, one woman died, and the cause of the explosion has not been determined. Reports state the explosion occurred at a chemical compound building that is responsible for manufacturing primers. Hornady has been tight lipped about what happened and we do not know how this will affect production, but it would make sense that this will tighten supply on Hornady products. Which specific products, we cannot say but it’s likely to be all of them.
Israel Stops Ammo Exports
The recent conflict in the Middle East has further tightened supply on ammunition and firearms from IWI (Israel Military Industries). These include their popular Razor Core line of 5.56 and various firearms. Israel has stopped exporting all ammunition in addition to beginning imports to support the war effort. Mass shipments of ammunition are confirmed to have been delivered from the U.S. to meet demand. This ties into the Lake City’s restriction on commercial sales.
Of course we are also shipping billions of rounds of ammunition to Israel from our dwindling military stockpile that will need to be replenished.
IMI 5.56 Exports account for 5% of the global supply
Ukraine Conflict
The continuing conflict in Ukraine has tightened supply around .338 Lapua Mag, 7.62x39mm, 5.45x39mm, 5.56x45mm, and other popular calibers. In addition the US government has sent around 6 Billion rounds of ammunition to support the was effort against Russia and Biden just submitted a supplemental funding request for $61.4 billion to support Ukraine in military supplies.
Black Hills Contract
Black Hills Ammunition, famed manufacturer of the 5.56x45mm MK262 MOD 1-C cartridge, has halted commercial sales of that particular variation as well as others. They did not make any formal announcements, but it is a safe guess that we won’t be seeing that round available for some time as well as the .338 Lapua due to a 50 Million dollar contract with the Navy Seals.
Tiawan Conflict
In July The Biden administration announced a $345 million weapons package for Taiwan on Friday, the first tranche in a total of $1 billion the U.S. has allotted to be transferred directly from Pentagon stockpiles to the island this year. By December of this year we will have shipped 1 Billion dollars worth of ammunition and firearms to Tiawan with the promise of another 5 Billion next year.
US Government Stockpiles
With the absurd and incomprehensible amount of ammunition and heavy artillery being shipped the Ukraine, Israel & Tiawan the United States munitions stockpiles are at their lowest levels since WW2 and even with production at 100+% continue to decline at around 2% month over month. While the government has a plans to step up production and even expand manufacturing capability at our current pace it will take 36-48 months of non-stop production to re-supply our strategic stockpile assuming no further escalation.